Report from Karachi—
Musharraf Walks a Dangerous Tighrope
By Shahid Khan

Leaving my parents in Karachi is always hard but this time it was particularly so. Two weeks after general Musharraf declared de facto martial law in Pakistan, the situation remained unclear and the future uncertain. The uncertainty heightened my anxiety as my departure grew nearer.

Torn between leaving my parents and getting home to Vermont, I wondered whether I might have a problem leaving if security arrangements for Benazir Bhutto’s return to Karachi from Lahore shut down the city—as they had when she flew to Islamabad to lead a rally. The rally never occurred, but traffic was snarled for hours as main arteries were blocked by thousands of police. I was left hoping that her house arrest in Lahore would continue past the departure time for my flight late Wednesday night.

Thankfully, nothing major occurred in Karachi and I made it back without incident. I am now sitting in my Randolph Center home on Saturday morning. The clock reads 3:36 a.m., as my body clock attempts to re-adjust to Vermont time.

During the first couple of days after the emergency, we relied on the outside world about events unfolding in Pakistan by calling family in Vermont and Washington, D.C., but by the third day two English-language TV stations came back on the air, FOX and SkyTV. Interestingly, none of the Urdu stations were available, except for one which was reporting the government line.

The print media, however, was back in action the day after the emergency was imposed, covering details of the government’s actions along with photos of police brutality against demonstrators.

Why this difference? The answer might be found in what Benazir Bhutto once famously said to a print journalist during one of her terms as Prime Minister. She told him she did not care what he wrote about her since most Pakistanis could not read. Sadly, more than a decade after her last term, this fact still remains true and both generals and politicians subscribe to it.

Rumors Everywhere

More importantly, no one really believes what is being reported in the media or what the leaders say publicly. Everyone has their own "sources." "Inside information" is passed around at lightning speed. On the Monday after the emergency, the stock market went into a free fall after it was rumored that Musharraf had been placed under house arrest by the army. Interestingly, most of the selling was by foreign funds. Another rumor a couple of days later had Musharraf placing two army Corps Commanders under house arrest.

In the meantime, Musharraf has continued to fritter away whatever support he might have had amongst Pakistani moderates by jailing thousands of lawyers and political workers. He is also consolidating his power by stacking the Supreme Court with pliant judges to rule on any challenges to his actions and expanding the powers of military courts to try civilians. Civil rights are being steadily eroded under the pretext of fighting terrorism.

The result of Musharraf’s actions has been the empowerment of his opponents. Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan a pariah because of her back-room dealings with Musharraf, but the emergency has given her a new platform and now her star is rising. University campuses, politically dormant for many years, are once again alive with demonstrations, responding primarily to a call from Imran Khan, a former international cricket star turned politician. Imran is untainted by association with any previous government, but also has little following. He was the sole elected representative of his party.

On the positive side, Musharraf has announced that elections will be held in January of next year and that he will "take off his uniform" as soon as his hand-picked Supreme Court ratifies his election as president. He has also formed a new "caretaker" government headed by the former President of the Senate of the now-dissolved National Assembly.

Twenty four individuals from various parties hold cabinet portfolios. Some names are new but most of them have held political office in the past. On the face of it, this was an attempt by Musharraf to reconcile his opposition by including cabinet members from various parties (a prominent member of Nawaz Sharif’s party holds the housing and industry portfolio) but no one is paying much attention to this development. The basic question is whether elections held during the emergency will be considered legitimate or not.

Citizens 'Disengaged’

The average Pakistani remains disengaged from this process. As my father’s driver told me when I asked him if he preferred the continuation of military rule or a country run by politicians, he said it made no difference to him. Neither type of government had done anything for people like him, and he did not expect them to change.

His main concern was the increasing cost of basic necessities and his ability to send money home to his family. The Dawn, Karachi’s largest English-language daily newspaper, ran a story during my trip reporting that the retail price of essential items for daily living ranging from lentils to diesel fuel had gone up between 30 and 300 per cent in the last five years.

As long as the majority of Pakistanis stay out of the political process, the power of the party leaders to bring out the people in the streets will be hampered and Musharraf will be able to contain his opposition, thereby retaining his support from within the army. If the people come out into the streets and the army is forced to shoot its own citizens, this support will start to evaporate and we might expect another coup.

But what of the threat of terrorism and the "Talibanization" of Pakistan—Musharraf’s stated reason for invoking the emergency?

‘Talibanization’

The mountain valley of Swat, one of the most beautiful areas of Pakistan, is the most recent front in this war. It is one of the so-called tribal areas, one which used to be fairly tolerant because its people derived much of their income from tourism. There is much history here—Alexander the Great marched his army into India through this valley and the remains of centuries-old Buddhist temples dot the landscape.

When I first visited Swat in 1982, it had already started to become more conservative as part of the Islamisation program initiated by another military dictator, Zia-ul-Haq. Now, the majority of the area is under the control of Taliban leaders and Al-Qaeda followers who have established their own version of Shariah law.

The army says it is planning a major action, but so far it has been unable to regain control of the villages taken over by the Taliban.

Local villagers are cowed by the violence of the Taliban (they have publicly beheaded soldiers, cut off the hands of barbers, closed video and music shops and girls schools). Many villagers prefer Shariah law because it preserves their tribal, male-dominated social structure.

It is no wonder that the Bush administration is not taking sterner action against Musharraf. And, it is no wonder that John Negroponte’s demands for the emergency to be lifted were rejected by Musharraf. At this point, the US has little leverage in Islamabad and its options are limited to public statements critical of the emergency tempered by citing Musharraf’s key role in the "Global War on Terror."

Musharraf knows that the Bush administration needs him in this war and cannot afford to abandon him or to cut off military aid. Most Pakistanis, however, feel that it is time for Musharraf to step aside—that he can no longer be part of a solution. For the US, there are no easy options. We have to be in for the long haul but a change in our approach from a primarily military-based solution to one of human development ought to be considered. The alternative is to continue supporting a failed policy that will result in more violence and greater instability in a country with operational nuclear weapons.

Since my last report, much has happened and the stakes have risen higher. It is hard to keep up with daily developments. While the country on the surface, in day-to-day life, seems normal, behind-the-scenes-jockeying by competing interests may be beyond Musharraf’s ability to manage in the short term. On the other hand, he has outfoxed all his rivals so far.