A Cause for All Seasons: The Asteroid
By Chris Costanzo

An artist's conception of the collision of an asteroid into the pleasant little White River Valley town of Bethel. It's not likely, but it's not impossible either-and your town isn't safe either, says Herald writer Chris Costanzo. The drawing is by The Herald's popular "Poco Loco" cartoonist, Scott Wood of Northfield, Vt.

As my wife and I proceed through our golden years in Bethel, it occurred to us that it would be beneficial if we had a new cause that we could follow avidly and that would help keep us going spiritually and intellectually throughout our dotage. We spent most of the past year looking for something that, around this area at least, would be relatively new.

We found that many causes are already in full bloom in the region. The crusade for preserving mother earth is currently in full swing, and the war against invasive species already has excellent local participation. The Bethel town hall restoration effort is going strong, and downtown revitalization is in progress. Many people are already finding personal fulfillment in their drive to improve Bethel’s town roads, and the issue of the elusive Vermont catamount already has many local adherents, as does global warming and light pollution. We also studied other more exotic causes, such as alien abductions, pyramidology, auras, telekinesis, crystal curatives and homeopathic science, but found them a bit too cranky for us. Finally, after reading widely, searching the internet, talking to a lot of people, and engaging in serious soul searching we settled on the Asteroid.

Not just any asteroid mind you, but a very specific one named Apophis that is scheduled to pass the earth on April 13, 2029, at a microscopically close distance of 20,000 miles (about 1/12 the distance of the moon to us), well within the orbits of some of earth’s artificial satellites. Astronomers have been able to compute with reasonable certainty that even though Apophis will come close it will not crash into the earth (even though the predicted 2029 fly-by date happens to be a Friday the Thirteenth). But, the reader will notice the internally-contradictory and chilling phrase "reasonable certainty." Not absolute certainty, or simple certainty, just "reasonable" certainty.

Orbital calculations are never exact, since orbiting bodies are acted upon by the gravity of countless other constantly moving bodies in the solar system. Also, we cannot predict whether, say, a new comet might come whizzing by and alter the orbit of Apophis for the worse. (After all, new comets are relatively frequent, and several are discovered every year.) Even scarier is the distinct possibility, which scientists have computed, that when Apophis passes us in 2029 the earth’s relatively strong gravity at such a close distance might alter its orbit to make it crash into us during a later pass in 2036.

But one wonders why we should let such a matter consume our golden years. After all, Apophis is only about 1,050 feet in diameter. Calculations show that if it comes in at a 45 degree angle (best guess), and hits the earth at an estimated speed of eight miles a second (after being slowed down by air resistance), the impact will blast a crater only about 6,600 feet across and 1,600 feet deep.

But the point is that we don’t know where on the planet it might hit. Our concern is that if it were to fall on the village of Bethel, the crater would neatly cover all the space from the school to the town offices, as well as most of North Main Street, and the hills behind the village.

Gone would be the Bethel revitalization initiative and the annual flower basket beautification project. There would be no more problem regarding water seepage in the town hall because there would be no town hall. The town offices in the old creamery would also be gone, and the question of adequate office space for the town manager would therefore be moot. The selectboard’s success in squeezing extra money out Montpelier for the Church Street bridge will have been for naught, because there won’t be any bridge. And, finally, the school consolidation question would be definitively answered for us.

So let us not underestimate the Asteroid. It could really have a significant effect on us. It would certainly provide the mother of all Bethel news stories, and might even make the front page of The Herald of Randolph.

But as I think about it, in all likelihood there won’t be such a story because there won’t be any Herald of Randolph, or even any Randolph, or Royalton, Braintree, Brookfield, or Sharon. Although the asteroid’s crater won’t extend that far, one must remember that even an object as small as Apophis packs a tremendous amount of kinetic energy at eight miles per second. Once the movement of the asteroid is stopped abruptly by the earth, Apophis’ kinetic energy will generate an unimaginable blast (equivalent to 65,000 Hiroshima A-bombs) that will devastate several hundred square miles. We can count on Randolph and Royalton being leveled, and even Rochester on the other side of the mountain will no longer exist as we know it. Small wonder that the Asteroid was given the name Apophis—a Greek derivation of the ancient Egyptian god Apep, meaning "destroyer."

The explosion would release four times more energy than the Indonesian volcano Krakatoa when it erupted in 1883. Krakatoa’s eruption could be heard over 1/13th of the earth’s surface, and was detected by instruments everywhere in the world. Several cubic miles of rock, dust and ash were thrown up into the atmosphere, darkening the sky thousands of miles away, and then drifted around the world to create glorious sunsets and slightly lower global temperatures for about five years.

If Apophis strikes the earth—wherever it strikes—its much greater blast could have a detrimental effect on the world’s economy and its ecological balance. If Apophis falls in the ocean, the tsunami that it will generate will dwarf anything in the memory of mankind, and will cause unbelievable devastation of vast coastal regions. So, even if the asteroid doesn’t fall on Bethel, it could still catch our attention in Bethel..

But why, one may ask, would we want to take up as a cause something that we can do nothing about? Well, there is something we can do about it. Recent experience in sending a missile to break up a comet for scientific study has given scientists a considerable head start in learning how to send a similar projectile to a small moving object to nudge it into a different orbit. But there are already debates going on regarding the potential timing.

For example, we could send a radio probe to Apophis well before its predicted close approach in 2029. The radio probe could send signals back to earth that would allow an extremely accurate measurement of the asteroid’s orbit. The signals would allow a precise calculation of how Apophis will be affected by the earth’s gravity in 2029, and whether it’s liable to hit the earth on its next close pass in 2036. And it would give us plenty of lead time to send a mission to divert it.

But some believe that to get really accurate readings as to the possibility of an impact in 2036 we must wait until after the close pass of 2029 before we send a probe. The problem is that after 2029 the asteroid’s orbit may be too difficult to alter, and there might not be enough time.

The Asteroid offers a fantastic opportunity for political debate, crusades, letters to the editor, picketing, rallies in Washington, talk shows, entertainment, literature, and many other activities. The question of who will pay for a probe and impact mission will provide countless of hours of political theater.

The progressives will, of course, want an intricate sliding tax scale and a large bureaucracy to administer it. The conservatives will want the consumers to foot the bill in order to leave the supply side of our economy undiminished in its capacity for generating ongoing wealth that, they insist, will trickle down to others. The liberals will, without doubt, want to soak the rich, and put the burden of payment on the nation’s productive entities. The libertarians will want to keep government out of the matter entirely, and will busy themselves constructing survival shelters.

Scientists, pundits, kibitzers, politicians, religionists, and agitators will have a field day opining on the issue. The U.N. will certainly get involved, prompting admiration or disdain depending on one’s social, cultural or political obsessions. Meanwhile, the coming event could give a much needed impetus to science education in America’s schools.

Yes, the Asteroid is certainly a meaningful and multi-faceted issue, and my wife and I definitely plan to commit ourselves early to it. It is of little matter that the even the most pessimistic calculations put the odds of impact in 2036 at only about one in several thousand. It is of little matter that renewed measurements taken in May suggest that it won’t even come as close in 2036 as it will in 2029. We just can’t be sure. After all, this is our kids we’re talking about, and jobs will definitely be involved.